Embarking on a new journey, spurring on the horse's gallop. 2026 is a pivotal year for my country's automotive industry, marking a shift from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency improvement."
Faced with the wave of electrification and intelligent transformation, my country's automotive industry will strive towards high-quality development amidst high overall volume growth and profound structural adjustments. Guided by national policies and driven by collective corporate reflection, the "involution" centered solely on price reductions is expected to ease, while a "value war" focused on technological innovation, product iteration, quality improvement, and experience optimization will be comprehensively upgraded.
After exceeding expectations in 2025, the domestic auto market officially entered a new phase of "high sales volume, low growth" in 2026. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) predicts total auto sales of 34.75 million units in 2026, a slight increase of 1%; the China Automotive Industry Association (CAIA) predicts domestic auto sales of approximately 28 million units in 2026, an increase of 2%. The core characteristics of this phase are a large sales base, stable growth, and a shift in industry competition from scale to quality and efficiency.
Previously, some market institutions were pessimistic about the 2026 Chinese auto market due to factors such as the dual adjustment of the purchase tax on new energy vehicles ("halved tax + technology restrictions") and the diminishing marginal effect of the "two new" policies (new energy vehicles and new infrastructure). The Central Economic Work Conference clarified that in 2026, the policy orientation of "seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency" will be upheld, and "adhering to domestic demand as the main driver and building a strong domestic market" will be a key task. Based on the significant role of the automotive industry in stabilizing the economy, promoting employment, and expanding consumption, macroeconomic policies will continue to support the stable operation of the automotive industry. With the implementation and effectiveness of the "Automotive Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" and the launch of pilot reforms for automobile circulation and consumption, it is not impossible for the automotive industry to achieve both effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth in 2026. China's super-large market advantage and complete industrial and supply chain system also foster strong resilience and vitality for the stable operation of the automotive industry.
From a product structure perspective, under the overall stable market growth, new energy vehicles will achieve both quantitative and qualitative improvement. New energy vehicles remain the core driving force for industry growth, with sales expected to exceed 20 million units in 2026 (including exports), further consolidating their dominant market position. After years of cultivation, Chinese automakers, leveraging technological innovation, industrial chain advantages, and economies of scale, are able to produce new energy vehicles with price advantages. If in the past, new energy vehicle sales were mainly driven by policy, now, with a domestic penetration rate exceeding 50%, new energy vehicle sales rely more on market forces.
From the perspective of market competition, the concentration effect of leading domestic automakers will intensify. Geely, BYD, and Chery hold a clear leading advantage. In 2026, these top automakers will benefit from product structure upgrades and global expansion, achieving steady growth. At the beginning of the new year, Geely Holding Group released its "One Geely, Comprehensive Leadership" 2030 strategic goal and announced key indicators for 2030: achieving global sales exceeding 6.5 million vehicles and ranking among the top five global automakers. New energy vehicles will account for approximately 75% of sales, with overseas sales accounting for over one-third. Geely Holding's sales are projected to exceed 4.5 million vehicles in 2026. While BYD has not announced its 2026 sales target, its efforts in technological innovation, industrial collaboration, and globalization are expected to continue leading the industry.
The new energy vehicle startups are rapidly differentiating themselves. After a year of fierce competition, Leapmotor and XPeng have doubled their sales, leading the pack. Cross-industry players HarmonyOS and Xiaomi have also performed strongly, while some former top performers have unexpectedly fallen behind. This differentiation will accelerate in 2026. Leapmotor and HarmonyOS have both set sales targets of over 1 million vehicles for the new year; NIO's strategy is shifting towards a higher pursuit of growth quality and operational efficiency; XPeng is striving to achieve sales growth and brand elevation through a dual-track approach of product portfolio and self-developed technology; Li Auto is shifting its focus to organizational restructuring and strategic refocusing, consolidating its original three product lines into two, while reducing offline stores and emphasizing efficiency improvements; Xiaomi is expected to achieve its sales target of 550,000 vehicles through new product launches and production capacity ramp-up. This indicates that competition in the Chinese auto market is becoming more diversified, with both the scale effect of giants and the innovative vitality of emerging players.